Analysts laud UAE's global crisis action
The UAE has one of the highest bailout-GDP ratios in the world, new research maintains, but economists and analysts Emirates Business spoke with refute the numbers, while lauding the policy response by the government.
According to the global Bailout/Stimulus Tracker published by Grail Research, the UAE announced bailout packages amounting to $52.6 billion (Dh193.2bn) between July 1, 2008 and July 17, 2009. This works out to 32.21 per cent of the country's GDP, which according to World Bank estimates was $163.3bn in 2008.
However, the UAE numbers include the $20bn Dubai bond and the $19bn emergency fund for banks, which analysts do not see as a bailout and think that it is akin to comparing apples with oranges.
"The UAE Government interventions are not 'bailouts' as defined by economists and as happened in the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries," said Dr Nasser Saidi, Chief Economist, Dubai International Financial Centre.
Dr Mahdi Mattar, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Shuaa Capital, said: "The $20bn Dubai bond is really a loan at almost market interest rates – that's not a bailout."
Simon Williams, HSBC's Chief Economist in Dubai, said: "I'm not comfortable with the methodology, but the underlying message that the policy response to the financial crisis in the UAE has been substantial is correct."
However, Kurian Thomas, Co-author of the Bailout/Stimulus Tracker, said that, technically, bailout money in the US too is supposed to be returned at some point by receiving firms. "The $20 billion Dubai bond was widely accepted as a bailout and I think their technical definition of getting market rates is hard to judge," he said. "In that way, a number of the bailouts [such as] the US Government bailouts are meant to be paid back."
Dr Mattar said: "The emergency lending facility extended to banks is not a bailout.
"The financial markets here are unfortunately not as mature as in some of the more developed markets such as the US, where the Federal Reserve acts as a lender of last resort to protect depositors and panic withdrawals. The UAE Government therefore has guaranteed bank deposits, and that should not be viewed as a bailout."
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