How to Waste a Crisis
The global financial crisis is reaching a bottom, and yet political
frustration is growing, because the low point of the collapse seems to
offer a last opportunity to promote dramatic change, and that
opportunity may be missed. Last year, President Obama’s chief of staff
Rahm Emanuel remarked that a good crisis should never be wasted.
Disaster is an opportunity for thinking of ways to make the world
fundamentally better – and also prevent future crises. People do a
great deal of thinking, but sometimes they think so much that they come
up with contradictory responses.
Indeed, what really makes a crisis profound is precisely the broad
variety of differing diagnoses and different remedies. The political
passions aroused by the clashes of interpretation often make the crisis
seemingly insoluble. It was those conflicts, rather than some technical
flaw in the operation of the economy, which made the Great Depression
of the 1930’s such a dismal and destructive event.
Responses to a crisis fall into two categories. The first type aims
at an institutional reordering, so that inefficiencies and perverse
incentives are removed, and the economy functions more smoothly and
efficiently. The second, more radical approach, tries to improve not
the economy but the way people themselves go about their lives.
No institutional solution is purely neutral in its effects on
relative incomes – and it is relative income and wealth around which
political debate typically revolves. Bailout operations invariably
bring bitter controversy because they help some but not others.
Rescuing automobile producers looks good to their employees and
suppliers. But the costs must be borne by everyone, including firms
that are not rescued – probably because they operate more efficiently –
and are put at a competitive disadvantage as a result.
Such rescues, in short, appear to help big companies with bad
managers. Small businesses will always complain that they do not have
the organizational clout to extract public funds from governments. And
bank bailouts, involving the direct use of public money to recapitalize
failing institutions, are even more costly and politically unpopular.
Advocates of monetary stimulation sometimes argue that it is
preferable because it is more neutral in its distributional effects,
and that its benefits are spread more widely. But monetary stimulus is
often in reality just as selective as bailouts.
The analogy popularized by the great monetarist economist Milton
Friedman was that the central bank could always deal with deflationary
problems by dropping money from a helicopter. But, in the real world,
not everyone is underneath the helicopter when it makes the drop. In
fact, it is likely that the helicopter pilot will hover over friends
and relatives when dropping the money. And even if the pilot is
completely non-corrupt, the crowd on the ground will always assume that
there is some hidden and partisan plan.
That has been precisely the problem with the aggressive provision of
liquidity, quantitative easing, and the reduction of central bank
interest rates used to address the current crisis. In today’s credit
crunch, as in the Great Depression, central banks lend at practically
zero interest rates. Depositors are paid almost nothing on their
deposits. But when businesses and consumers try to borrow, they find
that it is very costly, if not impossible. Lenders (the bankers) are
suspicious, worried about creditworthiness, and demand high risk
premia. As a consequence, in most countries, credit is still
contracting.
In practice, it is only banks that have access to cheap borrowing,
so they can reconstitute their balance sheets by borrowing cheaply and
lending expensively. This is why banks suddenly look so unexpectedly
profitable. But the contrast between bank profitability and the woes of
everyone else turns up the political heat on the central banks, which
have to explain why it is only their “friends,” the banks, who are
standing under the helicopter when it drops money.
Frustration with the complexities of trying to provide ready fixes
leads to attempts to find even more radical solutions. Some try to deal
with basic human proclivities, and to modify behavior to make people
better. It is in times of crisis that Utopian ideas about ways of
guaranteeing human happiness flourish, often claiming some scientific
basis.
For example, long before the financial collapse, experimental
economists joined psychologists in attempting to measure varying
propensities to greediness. Some evidence suggests that there is a link
between the level of dopamine, addiction, and greedy behavior.
Since a common diagnosis of the problems generated in the financial
services business holds that human greed is to blame, a German think
tank recently suggested that people with a genetic proclivity to high
dopamine levels should be barred from taking leading positions in
financial institutions.
But such apparently attractive strategies aimed at making better
people turn out to be exclusionary – and based on rather arbitrary
testing. If implemented, the German proposal would most likely exclude
behavior that involves acceptable risk, as well as sidelining those who
take wild and inappropriate decisions.
Both the institutional and the behavioral responses to a crisis are
fundamentally problematical. The search for technical solutions leads
to political polarization, and may produce stalemate. The search for
deep human roots of the crisis, by contrast, leads to attempts to
change human nature, which are futile – and also inherently much more
dangerous.
Harold James is Professor of history and international affairs at
the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University and Professor of
history at the European University Institute, Florence.
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